The Vines' performance on the main stage at the Sydney Big Day Out ten days ago may well go down as one of the major musical debacles in the festival's history.

Were we witnessing the beginning of the end for yet another over-hyped act? Are the Vines about to join the ranks of those who couldn't take the heat, such as At the Drive-In, the Primitives and 4 Non-Blondes?

Facing about 35,000 punters in a full-ish showground stadium, the band from Sydney's south (and later north) were welcomed by a curious, excited, expectant mob. Fresh from performing about 80 gigs over the past seven months, the Vines responded by charging out of the gates at pace. Like a 1000-metre sprinter taking on the Melbourne Cup, however, they soon ran out of puff.

With only a handful of top-shelf tunes in their weaponry, one of which, Factory, they don't play anymore, frontman Craig Nicholls reverted to Plan B, which involved staggering about the stage, eyes lolling in the back of his head, looking for musical equipment to dislodge or knock over. And a fair bit of pointless soloing.

By the third or fourth song, the Vines were letting an extraordinary opportunity slip from their grasp. What had been a red-hot welcome quickly cooled to lukewarm. By the end of the set there was no zap of electricity about the stadium, no feeling of having witnessed a watershed moment. Rather, the smattering of audience applause was followed by a curious silence.

Punters then started talking among themselves about what they'd just seen. Everyone's a critic, and the Big Day Out was suddenly crawling with them. There was a mixture of glee and disappointment as people turned to each other. "Was that as bad as I thought it was?" "No, it was worse." "Man, what a bunch of pretenders." "I can't believe how f* they were!"

In my orbit - surrounded by freeloaders and paying customers - it was all one-way traffic.

Melbourne trio the Living End followed and blew the Vines all the way back to Sylvania with an adrenaline-charged set of singalong neo-rockabilly-punk.

It's all about perspective, though, and part of the Big Day Out's charm is the many angles on offer, depending on whether you're viewing and listening in the mosh, the grandstand or from the side of the stage.

Andy Kelly from the Vines' management company and Todd Wagstaff from their label, Engine Room, were quick to point out that the Vines can't have been all that bad - they sold more merchandise than any other Australian band on the Big Day Out bill.

"I don't see why they should have to apologise for not playing an hour of balls-to-the-wall rock'n'roll songs," Kelly said. "They're still great songs. There's a perception that to play on the main stage, you have to play rock, but the Vines are a different band.

"If they came out of New York, it would have been fine, yet because they're from Hurstville, there's a suspicion about them. Maybe it's because they haven't driven up and down the Hume [Highway] 48 times. But I don't feel as if [the negativity] is coming from the kids who paid $100 to see the show."

Wagstaff conceded that the Vines "are a baby band and they need time to develop into a stadium band".

"People judge the Vines against Australian rock history, they don't judge the Vines as the art-rock band that they are," he said. "They are not a generic rock band, they take you on a journey. They play that same show around the world, where they're judged the best band at Reading and Glastonbury [popular British music festivals], yet here people judge them quite unfairly."

Pop and rock's back lanes are littered with bands and singers for whom the hype and accompanying initial blast of success were never enough to save them from the real world of unemployment, desk jobs and council rates.

It is a ghoulish pastime, yet you can't help but wonder who of the current crop - the Vines, the Hives, Pink, the Music, Jet, the Datsuns, Delta Goodrem, Black Rebel Motorcycle Club, Alicia Keys, Avril Lavigne, White Stripes, the Strokes - will prosper long-term.

Alternately, who will go the way of 4 Non-Blondes, Joan Osborne, JoBoxers, Inspiral Carpets, Francis Dunnery, Georgia Satellites, Things Of Stone And Wood, L7, Chesney Hawkes, Ratcat, Deee-Lite, Real McCoy, Toad the Wet Sprocket and Marcy Playground?

Or Gyan, Big Pig, Tanita Takaram, Ed Harcourt, the Seahorses, Sugar Ray, Elastica, Europe, the Primitives, Timbuk 3, Baby Animals, Peter Blakeley and At the Drive-In? The latter, after six years of touring and recording, were tagged by the easily excited as the latest saviours of rock. Inthe end, they buckled under the pressure and announced an extended hiatus in 2001.

"We need time to rest up and re-evaluate, just to be human beings again and to decide when we feel like playing music again," guitarist Omar Rodriguez said.

Peter Blakeley, meanwhile, was gifted with the voice of an angel but, after a brief flirtation with the major-label hype machine and the charts in the 1980s, he disappeared from public view, despite subsequently releasing a handful of albums and EPs.

So, should the Vines have been on the Big Day Out bill? Absolutely. In the main arena, sandwiched between hardened stadium veterans such as Foo Fighters, Living End, P.J. Harvey and Jane's Addiction? No way in the world.

Even the most hardened cynics wouldacknowledge there is a charisma about young singer and songwriter Craig Nicholls. He is a natural star, andthey don't come along that often.

When the Vines nail it, they can be exhilarating, but they had no business using the main arena as a rehearsal room for a slew of slower, supposedly artier material. It was not the time or the place and, frankly, much of the material wasn't up to scratch.

Were the Vines crumbling before our eyes, then, or simply shedding part-time fans that don't get it? The hype - which they never asked for - has undoubtedly given them a fast-track to plum gigs such as the BDO, but will it see them off before their time?

In an ideal world, the Vines would have performed on the smaller stages that housed acts such as Wilco, the Hard-Ons and You Am I. This, however,would have created a serious safety hazard.

The result of all the Vines hype is that they've been painted into a corner. They have nowhere to hone their craft, for everyone knows who they are and everyone has an opinion about them.

"There was never any question about them playing [the main arena]," Kelly said. "They were offered the Big Day Out last year but we felt it was too early.

"I don't know what they have to do to get over this tall poppy syndrome. I thought their Sydney set was great and I don't think they need to justify why they're on the main stage."

The Vines are currently writing and demo-ing songs for their second album.